Record Q4 ad spend is coming, but spending more won’t guarantee better results

The latest AA/Warc Expenditure Report forecasts UK ad investment to grow 9.9% in 2026 to £51.3bn, with a record £14bn expected in Q4.

Beneath the growth, our chief strategy officer, Ric Hayes, sees a tension. Investment is rising, but confidence remains fragile. That pushes budgets towards tactics that deliver fast returns, which is why retail media and social are attracting so much of the spend.

A busier festive quarter means more competition for attention, so brands will need to make every pound count. Spending more doesn’t guarantee stronger results.

Read Ric’s perspective alongside other industry leaders in Campaign UK.